How OECD leverages AI and collaboration to understand emerging global risks
Inclus recently hosted a webinar with the OECD, exploring how AI and international collaboration are helping governments and organizations build a shared understanding of emerging global risks. The discussion featured Nestor Alfonso Santamaria from the OECD’s High-Level Risk Forum, joined by Mikaeli Langinvainio, the CEO of Inclus.
Why emerging risks, and why now?
Although the OECD has been studying emerging risks for more than a decade, recent years have brought renewed urgency. The COVID-19 pandemic, increasing geopolitical instability, climate change, and rapid technological advances highlight the need for anticipatory governance — systems capable of preparing not only for known risks but also for the unknown and unexpected ones.
‘Emerging critical risks’, what are they?
Santamaria explained that emerging critical risks are those that:
Involve major uncertainties or knowledge gaps, and/or
Require new or significantly adapted capabilities to manage effectively.
Examples include the overlap of synthetic biology and AI, biohazards, and the societal risks of AI-driven disinformation.
Some of these risks could materialize within decades, while others are already unfolding. Importantly, windows of opportunity for mitigation may close long before the risks fully manifest.
Broadening the evidence base with AI
One of the key challenges in identifying risks has traditionally been the reliance on English-language and sometimes Eurocentric sources.
Through collaboration with Inclus, the OECD leveraged AI-powered multilingual analysis to include publications in Spanish, French, Korean, Japanese, and more. This allowed for a richer, more geographically balanced understanding of global risk perceptions.
Machine translation and AI summarization proved game-changing, enabling policymakers to process and compare insights from dozens of reports worldwide.
Inclus supported the OECD in structuring these findings into scenarios that describe not just the causes of risks but also their potential consequences and vulnerabilities.
Keeping humans in the loop
While AI accelerates analysis, human oversight remains essential. The OECD ensures validation through expert workshops and policy community consultations. Recent deep dives have focused on solar radiation modification and the synthetic biology – AI nexus, bringing technical experts and policymakers together to stress-test scenarios.
Full publication of findings in 2026
The OECD plans to release a full publication of these findings in 2026, offering governments actionable insights into emerging risks and their policy implications.
In the meantime, member countries such as Korea and Finland are already pioneering frameworks for anticipatory governance, setting an example for others.
Key takeaways
Emerging risks are inherently global and interconnected, requiring collaborative approaches.
AI can expand the horizon of foresight by integrating multilingual, diverse sources of knowledge.
Policy relevance is crucial — understanding not only what risks exist, but also what changes are required to governance systems.
Human expertise remains indispensable to validate, interpret, and act upon AI-driven insights.